By Dr. Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim
When Britain recently started aviation fuel imports from Nigeria, the decision received little international attention. It should have.
The move was not simply a commercial transaction. It reflected a deeper shift in the way governments are beginning to think about energy security after years of geopolitical shocks.
For decades, countries treated energy mainly as a question of price and supply. They bought from the cheapest producers and assumed the global trading system would remain stable enough to guarantee uninterrupted flows of oil and refined products.
That assumption is collapsing.
The latest tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have again exposed how vulnerable the world economy remains to geopolitical disruption. Nearly one-fifth of global oil supply passes through that narrow waterway. Even the threat of instability there can raise shipping costs, disrupt fuel markets and unsettle industrial supply chains across continents.
Europe has already learned painful lessons about overdependence on fragile supply routes. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the weaknesses of global logistics systems. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrated how quickly energy dependence can become a strategic liability.
Now governments are adjusting.
Energy security is no longer only about who has oil and gas reserves. It is increasingly about who can deliver reliably during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
That shift matters for Nigeria.
Nigeria possesses some of the world’s largest hydrocarbon reserves and occupies an advantageous Atlantic position far from many of today’s geopolitical flashpoints. As Europe and other economies diversify energy relationships and reduce exposure to unstable regions, Nigeria has an opportunity to become a more important strategic supplier.
But resources alone are not enough.
The central issue is trust.
For decades, Nigeria has struggled to convert immense natural wealth into lasting national strength. Corruption, insecurity, policy inconsistency and weak institutions undermined investor confidence and damaged the country’s international credibility.
The result is that Nigeria is often viewed as a country with extraordinary potential but uncertain execution.
That perception now carries economic consequences.
Global markets reward predictability. Investors want confidence that pipelines and infrastructure are secure, contracts will survive political transitions and exports can continue during periods of instability.
The countries that will matter most in the coming decades may not necessarily be those with the largest reserves beneath the ground. They will be the countries capable of providing stability when other regions become uncertain.
Nigeria can become one of those countries, but only if it treats this moment with seriousness.
The country still has significant room to expand crude production by reactivating shut-in wells, improving operational efficiency and strengthening infrastructure security. Yet production growth alone will not solve the larger problem.
Nigeria must also build institutions that inspire long-term confidence.
That means protecting critical infrastructure from theft and sabotage. It means creating regulatory stability so investors can make long-term commitments without fearing abrupt policy reversals. It means demonstrating that contracts and commercial rules will outlast political cycles.
Nigeria must also think beyond crude oil exports.
The growth of domestic refining capacity, particularly through the Dangote Refinery, presents another strategic opportunity. For years, Africa’s largest oil producer depended heavily on imported refined products because domestic refining systems deteriorated through mismanagement and neglect.
That contradiction weakened national credibility and exported economic value that should have remained within the country.
Now Nigeria has an opportunity not only to export crude oil, but also to become a significant supplier of refined petroleum products to regional and international markets.
That distinction matters.
Countries that refine and export petroleum products occupy a stronger position in the energy value chain than countries that merely export raw commodities. They gain greater strategic leverage, industrial capacity and economic resilience.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is therefore more than a Middle Eastern security problem. It is a warning that the global economy is reorganizing itself around resilience, trusted partnerships and secure supply chains.
Countries that can provide reliability during periods of uncertainty will gain influence. Countries that cannot will become increasingly vulnerable.
This is not simply an energy story. It is also a story about the changing structure of geopolitical power. In an era of fractured supply chains and growing regional instability, dependable exporters will acquire greater diplomatic and economic influence than their resource base alone might suggest. That is why reliability is becoming as strategically important as production itself.
The world needs dependable energy partners.
Nigeria has the reserves, geography and refining potential to become one of them. What remains uncertain is whether the country can finally build the credibility and institutional stability required to seize the opportunity.
https://www.eurasiareview.com/11052026-the-next-energy-superpower-may-not-be-who-the-world-expects-oped/
First Published in Eurasiareview.comon 11 May, 2026
