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IS NIGERIA OUT OF ECONOMIC RECESSION?

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in a real gross domestic product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales.”

Other experts have also defined economic recession as a negative real GDP growth rate for two consecutive quarters

The causes and solution of economic recession in the nation has therefore become a major topic of discussion on the lips of major experts and non-experts in Nigeria and beyond. With low growth rate of 1.5%, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), have all agreed that Nigeria’s economy may not regain stability until after 2017

Meanwhile, the London-based organisation dedicated to producing financial analysis, insight and data relating to questions of key importance to the world economy, made this known on Tuesday, April 18, 2017.

“April Sales Managers’ Index (SMI) data suggests that the Nigerian economy is continuing to grow out of the recession which saw 10 months of consecutive contraction in 2016,” it said in a release published on its website.

“The Market Growth Index grew to 58.5 in April as the monthly Sales Growth Index ticked up to 56.7, its highest value since 2015 and representative of rapid growth. Price inflation for April, which is tracked by the Prices Charged Index, remained high at 58.7 – indicative of high levels of inflation – however, a slowing trend has developed for the past 9 months.”

World Economics also noted that there are still issues the economy handlers need to fix before it can be totally out of the woods.

The organisation said “panelists have explained that although conditions remain difficult for businesses, they are adapting to the challenges and the recent changes to the Naira’s FX rate are aiding sales transactions.

“Overall, conditions in Nigeria have improved further over the past month and managers are expressing renewed optimism that the economy will continue to grow and regain strength after the recession.”

Nigeria’s economy plunged into recession at the end of Q2 in 2016 after falling oil prices ate deep into the country’s earnings and caused the Naira to weaken thereby causing inflation to spiral upward.